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  June Stormtrack
6/10/2009 9:16:48 AMHoward Rowson

I was listening to Radio 4 on the commute home the other night. News that the MetOffice had just commissioned a new super computer housed in a room the size of two footie pitches was discussed.  The upshot to the conversation on the Radio was that by late 2009 early 2010 we could be looking at forecast detail down to the mesoscale resolution for the whole of the UK, and Europe which will be good news for us, certainly making the wind forecasts out to 5 days more accurate.

West Kirby may well be back on line soon, 22nd of June was the original date for re-opening, however this may be postponed for a little longer due to the time lost with the change of Contractors.

A week or so ago we might have thought summer had arrived, with temps up around the high twenties and plenty of sun to boot. Well old mother nature soon put that thought to rest, with a very unseasonable cooling and wet spell, that we are currently under. Great to see the Eire boyz maximisimg the ene flow with some great speeds down at Burrows. Green, white and orange leading the way this month, just squeezing out some equally great sessions from Manfred and Co. over in Germany.

This cool and showery pattern is going nowhere fast with the trend for slack / weak areas of low pressure to drift north east between northern France and the UK over the next few days, with cool and showery often thundery spells,  the run of the mill.

One such system looks set to deepen over Denmark Thursday as it slowly drifts towards the Baltic states bringing heavy rain and gales to this region, winds could be up at F9 + for a time towards the weekend.

Closer to home, the general trend is for unsettled conditions to continue with no currrent signs of high pressure building yet.  More over the UK could enter a pretty windy spell over the next couple of weeks, with early signs of potential gales winging our way, perhaps even a hint of a west to wnw'ly.

Warm and Sunny for Mr. H with the chance of sea breezes

6/16/2009 10:02:26 AMHoward Rowson

Hold on to your hats - here comes the wind.

Strong to galeforce southerlies up the Irish Sea, building thru the day tomorrow, as a storm system spins in off the Atlantic travelling ne, north of Scotland. The strongest of  the flow looks like coming thru with the active weather fronts assocoiated with the storm. Windflow veering sw/wsw once the cold front has past thru late wednesday / early thursday. A strong wsw windflow looks like being maintained across the country thursday into Friday. With the flow further veering wnw Friday, strongest of the wind the further north you go.  Thereafter high pressure building strongly over the UK. West Kirby is dry at present therefore no Friday dawnie. Not likely to see any water til next week. Looks like the only potential session that will be missed on Friday during the closure period.

Fleetwood and Roa could be good Thurs/Friday with low tides noon to mid afternoon.
6/16/2009 11:50:40 AMSteve Thorp

Nice one Howie I'll pencil thurs/fri in for a day off. Anyone else fancy Roa if it's on?
Keep us updated mate..
6/16/2009 12:58:58 PMHoward Rowson

Hey Steve, I'm all out of holidays until november, used them all up refurbing the house.

A hard call tho, between Fleets and Roa, WNW may be too broad up Roa, Fleets will take a Nw'er up top. Roa could be better with stronger wind,  if it stays west for a good angle, sailing the 800m bank on starboard directly west of Roa island.

25-30kts not out of the question at this stage

We'll see how the forecast pans out and give it a best guestimate tomorrow

cheers
H
6/16/2009 5:15:33 PMMike Pacey

 Hi Howard and Steve
West Kirby re-opening date Gump and I are up for it
6/17/2009 5:31:23 PMHoward Rowson

The strong to galeforce southerly flow now veered westerly in the Irish Sea. Winds easing for a time Thursday, moderate to fresh, sw/wsw, before veering west Thursday night, increasing again F5-F7 early Friday west to wnw, before easing from the SW approaches thru Friday, as high pressure ridges in from the SW for the weekend. No serious wind thereafter on to the forecast horizon.

Fleetwood and Roa could be good Friday 20-30kts West-WNW, alas no real data on these speedstrips from the westerly quarter.


Mike - sometime in July - hopefully.

6/17/2009 7:05:04 PMSteve Thorp

Nice one dudes.

So Thursday not windy enough, Friday wrong direction? Roll on WK opening..
Guess I'll hope for a sail at Rutland Friday..   cheers H
6/18/2009 8:42:56 AMHoward Rowson

Fair play Stevie, both Fleets and Roa are a full days outing 6-8 hr trip for me, a long way to travel for uncharted territory. Looks like I'll have to wait for weekend sessions at WK.

Suffice to say WK will be windy'ish and broad Friday :(

High pressure dominating 'til the end of the month. July can bring good wind especially when we get strong azores ridging and low pressure tracking east between Scotland and Iceland. GFS tending to favour this synops at this range.
6/18/2009 10:46:13 AMPaul Burgess

Wind looking good this Friday, low tide at Fleetwood at 15.12 . I've never sailed there myself, so would only make thew trip if other speedies where going . If anybodies up for a session can they either post on here on email me at paulburgess@arrowefarmtreecare.co.uk cheers Paul
6/26/2009 10:15:40 AMHoward Rowson

The heat is on!!

Looks like we may get a Spanish plume heading up to the UK next week as pressure falls to the west drawing up hot, humid and thundery air from the south. Temps could be up into the low 30's.
Thereafter towards the first weekend of July, we may see the azores high ridging up into Biscay, coupled with pressure falling to the north / ne of Scotland, and a resultant tightening of the iso's and a westerly flow. Follow on from Al's WK update, the lake may well be drained again, however if not, I smell a dawnie in the wind mmm sweet!
   
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