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  Heads up - West Kirby - Mon / Tue 4th/5th Feb 2013
2/1/2013 2:12:20 PMHoward Rowson

Ok , We have sufficient agreement from all the models for a West (Mon), West to WNW (Tue) for West Kirby. No breach of wall forecast, dawn2dusk speedsailing is on the cards.

Current anticipated flow 30-40kts for both days, kicking in through Monday morning, and sustained through Tuesday, with a gradual veer to WNW.

Temps. - Monday starting on the mild side (for Feb), cooling off through the day. Tuesday brrr.. cold , expect hail, sleet and snow,  if any beefy showers were to hit. (likely)

 

2/1/2013 6:32:23 PMHoward Rowson

Some doubt for Tuesday has crept into the 12z charts , Monday still good to go.  Keeping an eye on the Ecm 12z update and updates thru this weekend.

2/1/2013 7:11:15 PMPaul Burgess

Anyone looking for somewhere to stay in west kirby when u come up to sail  I can recommend  http://www.numberfifteen.co.uk/  mention my name 

2/2/2013 7:21:43 PMHoward Rowson

Monday - Current 12z charts good for West 6 to 8 with gusts to 40+ ,  Tuesday has come back from the toilet rim, also looking good for 6 to 8 from the west, got to keep an eye on the weather front sinking south and its timing, may have the wind back a notch south of west

2/3/2013 11:11:21 AMHoward Rowson

I sense that for a change, rather than the usual downgrades we experience as a potential session draws nearer, this time we appear to be on an upgrade path.

The current Met Mslp charts for Monday are a sight for sore eyes, something the like we have not seen for an age, with an intense deep low pressure just to the se of iceland sinking se towards ne Scotland, tight isos country wide , deleivering the elusive westerly flow for WK.

Monday:

West 6 o 8 still very much on the cards for Monday, altough Wk is borderine for the West 7 to 9 just north of WK.

In real knots terms 30-40kts with gusts to 45 likely. West does look like being the flow angle, perhaps a notch broader. Although I have always said, it isnt a westerly until you are stood on the wall feeling it slap bang in your face.

Tuesday:

Still very much in the swathe of galefroce westerlies, howevver as mentioned yesterday we have an occlusion sinking south towards Wk. The Met have this on the radar, hence the wind backing a notch towards WSW. GFS model not picking this up in their current 00z wind stats ie. XC still dialing in a Westerly of some strength 6-8/9.

So in summary - green light for Monday, amber for Tuesday dependant upon the tming and orientation of the south sinking occlusion.

2/3/2013 1:15:38 PMIan Richards

Meso not showing so much wind for tomorrow....?  until 1800hrs 

2/3/2013 4:01:03 PMHoward Rowson

Don't worry Ian, West 6-8 with gusts to 50kts coastal forecast from the Beeb for Holyhead to Morecambe Bay - nerver wrong wink

2/4/2013 1:58:43 PMHoward Rowson

Ok .. Tuesday ...?

The MetO have now issued a warning for severe gales from the west to wnw for Cornwall and Devon with gusts to 60-70mph.

For West Kirby .. tricky one, gale to severe gale westerly early on (before day break)  backing wsw through the morning and easing to strong to gale, then veering west to wnw for the afternoon and back up to near gale to severe gale force .. cold with high wind chill and potential for snow / blizzards before day break. temps rising a tad for the afternoon, but the windchill still in place.

2/4/2013 6:41:39 PMHoward Rowson

Ok lets see where we are at for tomorrow.

The occluded front sweeping down from the north through Tuesday Morning looks like hitting WK just after noon, hold on to your hats , rigs, gear thereafter as the isos are tight on the northern side of the occlusion. The westerly should kick back in straight after with F7-F9,  veering WNW probably at dusk, nw by mid evening.

Not the most reliable of forecasts when occlusions are dialed into the wind equation, but given the current stats I would expect tomorrow afternoon to run as forecast.  (MetO)

2/4/2013 6:47:16 PMHoward Rowson

Based on the current MetO charts for 12 noon tomorrow I woulld expect an imminent issue of severe gales for northern irish sea waters

   
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