Synoptically the north atlantic charts are representational of what we should see in early spring let alone end of spring / early summer. The zonal flow that has not really got its act together since we emerged from deep cold / prolonged winter, is still showing evidence for firing through early to mid May, with resultant low pressure systems tracking either through or to the north of the UK, accompanied by spells of strong to gale+ wind wrapped around the lp's core, so plenty to keep an eye on over the next week or two, especially as I have booked a couple of weeks off to roof the workshop and rebuild the conservatory lean-to from the ground up, therefore bound to blow long and hard from the west then   that ought to read

Potential looming for a Westerly gale (Sw veering West to Wnw) to hit this week. Its been on the forecast charts for the last few days primarily the ECWMF, GFS and MetO now onboard too. At present Wednesday thru Friday dialed in for a low pressure system to hit the UK, with the pick of the day being Thursday. The forecast still open to change as we are not quite within the realiable time frame window of 1-3days. One to keep a close eye on.

Lol .. as per the first post of the stormtrack I had Thursday earmarked for dressing the workshop roof with new tiles ....  ermmm not in a westerly gale

Looking good...

Perfect timing as usual heh Ian, GFS 06z run throwing the spanner in for good measure , and taking the storm south of Wk, keeping the south coast fired, with Wk languishing in the northern flank and easterly. GFS at this range unless backed up by MetO and ECM is not that reliable. MetO dialing in the westerly gale mid arvo Thursday into the evening, may well extend to Friday am. Still its only Sunday so plenty of time for adjustments ... back to roofing and battening for the now.  Not sure if I can make Thursday .. GPS's at work , Speed board gone to John R and no downwind fin for the AB+ 54 Slalom ... not too worried .. so long as you guys get on it , thats all the matters for me at present.

Thursday's wind now looking increaslingly likely reserved just for the Sw, and south coast. Southend looking best on the late lowtide, early lowtide a little ahead of the wind. Sw 6-8 poss 7-9, for the south west and south coast

What time do we think that the Ray will be sailable from on Thursday afternoon? Ian?

I'm up for it, new kit needs a blast.

@ Lance, I would say its sailable from around 4pm, maybe a bit earlier if we're lucky. Portland looking very good as well and sailable all day ... 

Charts are a complete dogs dinner for Thursday into Friday. The south coast, away from the lp centre and associated fronts wrapped around the core favours the cleanest flow -  strong to gale poss severe gale from the SW/SSW, thru Thursday. Further north it gets real messy with no clean exit of the lp across Scotland and into the north sea, with weather fronts and secondary lp forming in the primary's wake, disrupting the veer to west, albeit a brief veer to west into Friday morning, poss F5-F6. Still the stormtrack of the primary is Rockall , Malin and across southern scotland and into the north sea. With the track good, only let down by complications forming in its wake, these are still widely open to debate with regards to the net wind flow resulting. We shall have a clearer view tomorrow. For the now, the south coast looks dialed for a Thursday Windfest. As for Southend .. all dependant on the location of the occlusion as to whether the flow veers wsw or stays ssw/sw. one to watch.

Severe wind warning now modified to cover Anglesey down west wales, Cornwall , Devon and southern england south of the m4, stretching east to the thames estuary, valid from 0900 to 2100hrs Thursday.  Gusts quite widely to 50-55mph, with the most exposed coastal stretches seeing gusts to 65mph most liklely down the Irish Sea, western english channel east to IOW. Strong to gale Westerly veer disappointingly through Thursday night, before backing wsw/sw through Friday by which time the wind will have moderated to strong. Potential still present for a west to wnw through the weekend.

Yes Ian, but a SSW flow , west or east course / port or starboard ,....?   borderline 6-8 or 7-9 for late arvo / evening

MetO latest indicating a potential w-wnw 6-8 for Saturday arvo ........

Southend certainly looks tempting -what's the west course like on starboard tack? (need a decent symetric fin..!)

Hoping that the NW comes good for Sun-Mon but doesn't look very solid, so guess shouldn't miss tomorrow. Half an eye on Hunny too..

sorry I mean East course! guess the West course will be slightly port? 

Looking good for St Johns Lake for tomorrow,  just broke out the race board sounds like a fun day ahead.

I'm off to hunny bank tomorrow, not sure how good it'll be for speed, if it's SSW it'll be pretty square but a good practice blast on flat water and infinitely better than work :-)

MetO continuing the improvement of the westerly flow for Saturday for WK, the flow now kicking in mid morning lasting into evening where it may broaden a notch to wnw. 25-35ts the order of the day. Looks like WK not missing out after all, albeit a somewhat moderated flow from tomorrows south coast nuker.

Southend anyone?

I cant make southend today but it looks good for some NMs on the west course. I've tried starboard on the east course in a SSW and it had a rolling chop running down it, especially when the tide was coming in.

Hi Howie. When's the next update ? BBC got it down as solid 26mph pure West all morning.. Met Office similar with 40mph gusts.

CHEERS

Tris

Fingers crossed for the Met office coming good:) 

Think I'll be heading for WK tomorrow as I'm sailing in isolation up here at Roa and really need to learn something from you good fellas. I'm making steady progress but can't help thinking that being shown would be alot quiker than working it all out for my self.

 I haven't been  in probably 15 years. What's the score with paying etc.?

Hi John, its £13 for the day, but sometimes you can just drive straight into the carpark and get away with paying. If I give you advice, you might go slower:)) see you tomorrow. 

Mark - Hi ! Wil the tide breach ?? Think it might - right in the middle of the day :(

Hi John,
I'm very keen to do Roa now I know the potential. I'm more than happy to help you any way I can. I might be up on Monday.
If you do go Kirby, the key to not paying is to be there before 8am. I'm sure you'll enjoy the experience as it's a very fun and esy place to sail with a great crew. Might see you there too. (although currently undecided for saturday, will probably wavesail down south)

mmm, to be honest I'm not 100% Tris. I think we might just get away with it as its only an 8.65m tide at 11.30. If it does breach, it will be sailable again from about 1pm. H might know the proper answer!

Great speeds yesterday guys - well done to all that managed a session.  Confidence is pretty high for the westerly to kick in tomorrow. Timing could be as early 9'ish (NAE) model, could be earlier ... all dependant upon a couple of occlusion sweeping in from the west, the first is forecast to hit aound 6am the 2nd not too far behind. I am expecting the westerly to kick in proper once the 2nd passes and the air clears to the west.  A solid F6 mean avg is forecast from the NAE model (old mescoscale), therefore 25-35kts should be the order for the day, gusts to F7 - F8 cannot be ruled out, so by no means epic, but  certainly a high possibility of 40kt avg for those seeking to hit 40+kt for the first time. Mark is spot on with the high tide 8.65/8.7 should not breach the wall so a full days sailing is in order, but the chance of a minor breach is there, if a significant push off the irish sea with the wind potentially up a 30kt + from the west. It will be unlikely that WK will be sailable at 8am, so expect a call from the attendant if you are rigging up in the car park...   updates to follow later once the 12z data is available (by 6pm).

Cheers Howie. Looking good for some steady blasting. Look forward to update later. THANK YOU.

Cheers Steve.

I can't think what you mean by potential. My last run yesterday was a mere 2 nautical milesof mirror flatness! May be  we should start a new category for that distance.

Thanks for the info Mark. Very pleased with the fins by the way.

Hi john / steve what time is roa working and at it's best, easy tide says 8:35 LW so is it an early start? I'm tempted to make a trip monday, Cheers,

Tony.

Ok Wk tomorrow F5-F7 West is the forecast, kicking in around 9-10am.  MetO giving the peak flow through the afternoon, 25-30kts gusting 35kt should just about cover it. NAE dialing in extra wind into the evening to dusk 25-35kts perhaps gusting 40kts, but this remains to be seen as the Met and GFS indicating the flow moderating through late afternoon to evening..perhaps broadening to wnw in the process.. nonetheless a half decent sesh up for grabs. GFS wind stats (ie. xcweather) -  West F5-F6 for the bulk of the afternoon. Given the Met forecast, Inshore waters and NAE I'd say the GFS wind stats were undercooked somewhat, 

MetOffice late changes dialing in a wsw flow for the morning, deferring the westerly until noon .... ? cannot see why at present

Put all the tracks, info here Tony http://www.stevethorp.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=242&Itemid=53
Haven't looked at exact times yet but will prob get there super early to catch the drop if there's some wind.

Thank you steve, will check forecast Sunday as and if its looking good head up Sunday pm for early start too.

Tony, I'll second what Steve has put on his site.

The only thing I would add is about water depth, but its common sense really. Where the channel is dredged and obviously steep to you will be out of your depth within a few feet from the edge and conversly where it shelves more gently, you won't! The little bay in front of the castle which invites you to tuck in and then bear off like crazy is shallow quite a long way out and does have mussels beds.

Would love to join you on monday but think it would be an after work job for me as first low water is 8.30 and despite Year 11 and 13 b**gering off to do exams I still have some kids to teach without seaweed in my hair. Oh,sorry! Forgot I am still sailing with a hood on so there's no way for the seaweed to get in my hair.......

Looks like ChrisB is having a boardlocker clearout ...lol   Anyhow back to the top for us.   ....... WK still solid for Saturday arvo, Meto dialing in a couple of extra knots to the mean for mid arvo with gusts to F8, in keeping with the inshore waters for goh to mog f5-f7 perhaps f8 for a time .... chilly feel to the day despite May more like Feb, but if the sun shows its face, will take the edge off the lowish temps.

Thanks John,

  I'm still thinking of going ( if forcast remains good! ) as I can't make WK today and really keen to sail a top strip. Shame you won't be there. Email me if you like tonyburg@btopenworld.com. 

Tony

Phew ... glad to see some sessions posted from WK today, the forecast had gone a bit iffy overnight, with the Met perhaps having overcooked the windspeed, with the NAE showing predominantley F5 for the Irish Sea with the odd patch of F6 into Liverpool Bay. Monday showing potential for a further blast of westerly, tho at present a tighter WSW looks more inkeeping with the mslp setup .. one to watch, as a deep area of lp sinks south towards the UK from Iceland, it's a filling feature, just a matter of how quiclkly its demise sets in.  Well done to all who sailed the WK today .... sorry John \i'll try and get myself sorted for the next one, I need to show you where the SP60 handbrake is and how to release it .... 

Howie, any speed I had today was entirely due to your polished bottom....

  nonetheless not bad for your initiation to the WK Wall ... well done mate!

Hi H, it was all good today:) The best part of the day was the last hour or two. All the freestylers etc had buggered of home.

Earlier on, all of our speeds were down due to the tighter angel and also having to change course/hand-brake-on or abort runs cause of the shear number of sailors.

When the wind picked up and the angel was broader, rolling chop became a problem. I eventually figured out that there was  a break in rolling chop that was reflecting back from the east side. Between the few minutes of lulls and gusts, the water would be flater allowing for longer fast runs.

Next time I'll pay more attention to this.

Was a fun day:)

Oh and John R and Mark Iingram have got great board handling skills and I reckon they will be flying on a good proper WNW:) 

Thanks Mark, glad you all had a fun sesh.   NAE data filtering through for  Monday, Roa in line for some solid F7 first light. MetO still holding out for a WK Westerly for most of the day 25-35kts.

Despite previous post, if anyone fancies a dawn raid on Roa tomorrow I could be very easily persuaded into a quick dip before work. Can provide a restorative cup of tea for anybody before heading over tonight. ayacata at hotmail co uk

Its' s a tough one this John. Lets take Anglesey to the Mull of Galloway, covering WK to Roa.  The MetO have Wk firing West all day borderline between F5-F7 and F6-F8 , similarly for Roa, perhaps backing WbS to WSW for Roa later in the day. GFS model has West am backing wsw pm for both spots. OK Met and GFS aside, the NAE model paints a slightly more contraversial picture and possibly the most accurate of all the main players with respect to forecast models, and wind direction and strength, especially when a few degrees in the flow angle can make all the difference. Based on Steve's sesh there recently, if the flow was wsw and Steve could sail back up the course, then it sounds very much like the course at Roa is of a similar orientation to the wall at WK. Looking at the wind stats though during Steve's sesh I think the flow was closer to a squarer SWbW. Therefore I would excpect Roa on a WSW to be similar to WK on a Westerly, and a WbS to be close to WK on a WbN to WNW. So the angle is fairly crucial for both spots to fire. The NAE model has Roa dialed in first light on a WbS F7 mean, I would therefore expect the win to be a solid 30kts with gusts to 40+. Similarly the flow for WK is a tighter Wbs/WSW compared to the Mets Westerly .. btw the Met do not do the incremental wind angles like Wbs and \Wbn only the main anlges - WSW, W, WnW etc , where as the NAE do not forecast the actual wind angle, only a visual based on the arrows on the map, so its quite easy to see when its not true West and a few degrees eitherside. Now we compare the mets mslp chart to see how clean the flow is, ie. any signs of troughs / weather fromts heading in on the flow, disrupting the flow angle. In this instance the flow is as clean as it gets, with just the cold front having swept through and the occluded front wrapped aroun the lp's core over central Scotland. Next we check the jet stream angle as upper wind direction play their part in effecting the wind angle down through the atmosphere down to sea level....... Ok Jet stream nuking from the West Monday, which will help to keep the flow parallel to the isobars, or thereabouts. So having assessed all this data it would appear that the NAE model has the flow angle and strength as close to what it ought to be given the stats ... which is what I would expect.    So in summary .. based on 06z data Roa should be pumping in pretty close to ideal angle at first light through the day and into the evening starting WbS back WSW for the afternoon Lowtide at Roa 0830 or thereabouts so sailable first light to around 1030 to 1100 with a potential 30-40kts and sould be sailable again late arvo early evening for the next lowie at 2030hrs... yes?   WK a little tigher than West early on close to WbS as per Roa, so pretty gusty and flat 25-30/35 kts, perhaps backing a little more to WSW as the day wears on, therefore more gusty on / off.

Steve good call mate, this was n't on the charts proper until yesterday yet you were mentioning monday as early as Thursday.  ....? Does this mean I can retire now and hand over the topic to you now.....? 

Watch out for the frontal wave heading in from the West towards Cornwall late Monday into Tuesday, it may combine with the primary situated just ne of Scotland and setup another West to WNW flow midweek for the Irish Sea, perhaps to galeforce. 

At the moment though the forecast is that  the combined low to bag out mid week, so lets concentrate our efforts into tomorrows forecast flow.

Hi,

  I've decided to leave roa for another day so I'm off to WK for first time, it'll be great to finally sail the infamous waters.Thank you Howie for all that indepth info.

Tony.

I realise that with the angles being similar at both Roa and WK most will stop at WK rather  than continue for 2 more hours to the frozen  wastelands. I'll keeping checking the email this evening but if there are no takers (sothern woofters!) then I will happily stay in bed!!!!!

@ Mark H: Cheers mate, thanks for the compliments. Good sailing with you. Looking forward to a WNW up at WK. 3 min summary of my day below. :-)

http://youtu.be/hbEvMIeMMOs

Quietly chucking some speed gear in the van for west Kirby tomorrow, not super windy but looking like 5.8 weather in the morning. 

Ok 12z data run update. I'm leaning towards the continuation of the NAE prediction of WSW/WbS for both Roa and WK,  despite the Met and GFS indicating a Westerly flow. F6-F8, I would expect these numbers to be absolute max, F6-F7 more realistic.

Nice video Mark, the water looks super flat in that last run:)

Have a good'n tomorrow Ian, wished I could join you, but I'm off the Prague for the week. 

Quite a poor result given the forecast. The low pressure system just to the north west of Scotland has not deepened to the forecast 975mb,  currently around the mid 980's,  Isos are nothing like as tight as they ought to be, net result down the Irish Sea is around 1 BBFT downgrade to F5/F6 from F5-F7 gusts to F8  ... not good.

Just the outside of chances that during the early hours of Wednesday as the secondary inswinging lp  (mentioned earlier) crosses the south of england on a NE track that its position may coiincide with Southend's lowtide @ 10 ish , therefore sailable 7am? to deliver a wee gale from the SSW-WSW. GFS and Met have the flow peaking a little too early at the moment. One to keep an eye

Wednesday's potential for Southend still ever present, with the peak flow now coinciding with the 10am lowtide (MetO data). with a poss F6-8, perhaps starting south or ssw as the bank clears finishing wsw as the tide recovers.

Track and depth of pressure of storm are key to a successful delivery of wind for the Ray. MetO Gale / Severe Gale Warnings now in force for the South Coast as far east a Wight, Dover, Thames expected to follow suit. Inshore Waters for GP to NF Southerly veering SW 6-8 ... talk about threading the camel thru' the eye of a needle .....990mb or less with a track sw > ne through the central m4 towards east anglia should just about do it.

Ok just running through the nae 06z upodate for the small yet quite intense storm currently winging its way in from the west. The MetO have now issued severe wind warnings for the South West of England. Currently approaching Cornwall's western tip to be centred around Penzance 1600hrs BST. The strongest winds appear to be wrapping around the northern western and sw flank with gusts to 60-70mph this arvo as it tracks east - ese, Channel isles in for a hit this evening on the southern flank.. The storm then tracking ene towards between PH & IOW hitting the central M4 around midnight, continuimg NE then towards the Wash, so a little bit further north then anticipated. By 0700 BST with a strong to gale ssw veering sw > wsw between first light and 0900 on its southern flank, encompassing the Ray, between 1000-1300 the flow will be easing off somewhat, with the strongest winds transferring up the east coast. If the storm tracks a little futher to the west then WK could come into play late morning early arvo from the wnw.

Tricky one this little storm, I did say is was like threading the camel  .... technically Southend should fire on ssw / sw from first light to noon covering the lowtide window, however there is very little scope for deviation from the current forecast track and pressure depth, based on 12z MetO data anything either side will more than likely result in a skunking. Wind probably peaking pre low tide as the tide drops off 7am thru 9am with the outside chance of the wind staying up until the tide marches in ... I leave this one an open book...

Hows Sunday looking Howard, Southend maybe or has the forecast gone

That Stormtrack never really made it off the ground Martyn, and did n't develop following early promise a day or two ago. Yesterday early morning was the only real chance of Southend firing for the foreseeable.

Once we get this weekend westerly tracking storm out of the way (tracking west across the uk to eire then south) the general theme for the next week or so is:   High pressure to the SW of the UK rigding north to the west of the UK at times, with low pressure systems tracking east aroiund Iceland sinking SE into Scandanavia / north sea. Therefore a general reduction in the chance of seeing S-Sw'erlies that veer West, with an increase in the potential of the wind coming from the west to north quadrant, with a bias towards NW-Northerlies.