by Howard Rowson
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2-12-2013 07:55:01 | |
Thursday Ian ... shhhh
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by Howard Rowson
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2-12-2013 13:02:57 | |
Westerly gales are forecast to spread south during early wednesday with the potential for gusts of 50-70mph, hence the MetO severe wind warning issued this morning. WK is on the edge of the warnings envelope.
The current MetO forecast for WK has the flow WSW am ahead of the southward advancing cold front, veering West thereafter around mid to late morning. F7-F9 typically, especially once veered to the west. The wind moderating and veering WNW around dusk F6-F8.
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by Howard Rowson
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2-12-2013 13:07:03 | |
oops belay that! I did mean Thursday and not Wednesday ..... apologies
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by Will Trossell
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2-12-2013 13:55:05 | |
Hi Howard - how long do you think the tide will breach the wall for? looks like a big high tide at midday
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by Howard Rowson
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2-12-2013 17:04:24 | |
Hi Will, a 9.6m high tide @1215hrs with a westerly gale push in off the irish sea . ie. quick in / slow out - probably around 1100hrs for the breach and 1300hrs for the retreat. Therefore based on current forecast I would expect WSW pre high tide and full on Westerly thereafter, could be epic for 3hrs or so after the breach, tight and flat pre breach from sun up.
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by Howard Rowson
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2-12-2013 17:08:26 | |
It might take unitl 1330 to fully clear the wall .. depends how strong the wind comes in and +ve surge effect. ie. a 9.6m can behave like +10 if the surge is big ... take note re: car park +10m can swamp the lot.
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by Howard Rowson
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2-12-2013 17:38:34 | |
The element of concern at present for a spolier is the cold front, it's timing and the flow once it clears to the south of WK.
It's currently forecast to hit between 1400hrs and 1500hrs. The isobars look to have quite a nw'ly tilt to them behind the front, which ultimately means the wind will veer to the nw behind the cold front and there will not be enough time for the wind to back to wnw before dark and the full veer to nw/nnw later. Compounding this, the jet stream is on a nw>se angle across the UK Thursday helping the veer to nw on the front and thereafter.
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by Howard Rowson
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3-12-2013 07:45:08 | |
hmmm .. Some large numbers for WJ being thrown into the mix from the MetO, who sytill maintain a westerly flow for the afternoon, broadening WNW late afternoon, wind values typically 30-50kts+ or F7-F9+.
GFS model perhaps urr'ing on the cantious side with a wsw 6-8 am veering wnw 7-9 around noon, veering NW 6-8. by mid afternoon
Again, the cold front and more so the flow behind it pivotal in determining the flow for the majority of the afternoon. Nonetheless the angle of the cold front is orientated west - east therefore the wind should be from the West until it passes. If its orientation changes ie a wsw>ene the flow may not reach west perhaps wsw or wbs.
All to play for!
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by Howard Rowson
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3-12-2013 07:49:28 | |
Typing in the dark not good for spelling ..(damm eco proximity lights). well the J is next to K on the keyboard.
hmmm .. Some large numbers for WK being thrown into the mix from the MetO, who still maintain a westerly flow for the afternoon, broadening WNW late afternoon, wind values typically 30-50kts+ or F7-F9+.
GFS model perhaps urr'ing? / err'ing on the cautious side with a wsw 6-8 am veering wnw 7-9 around noon, veering NW 6-8. by mid afternoon
Again, the cold front and more so the flow behind it pivotal in determining the flow for the majority of the afternoon. Nonetheless the angle of the cold front is orientated west - east (at present) therefore the wind should be from the West until it passes. If it's orientation changes ie a wsw>ene the flow may not reach west perhaps wsw or wbs.
All to play for!
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by Howard Rowson
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3-12-2013 20:25:20 | |
Looking very much like an 11th hour call now peeps. UKMO have the cold front over WK at noon.
7-9 WSW for the morning ahead of the CF. F8-F10 West on the CF during the ht breach. Thereafter 7-9, direction: The GFS model has it too broad NW'ly, the UKMO mslp chart has an initial veer to NW then a kink in the isos allowing for a "WNW" F7-F10 flow which could be anything from 292-300 degrees before the full veer to NW+ @ dusk.
So to summarise: Big winds kicking in from the wsw for the morning F7-F9. Post high tide at present I would say too broad. Still time for late adjustments though.
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by Howard Rowson
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4-12-2013 07:37:48 | |
Slight improvements this morning on the 00z run over yesterdays 12z run especially from the GFS perspective. Although an occluded front has been dialed into the equation now ahead of the cold front. the only impact of this is it will be wetter for longer.
We are in NAE model territory now for fine detail tracking. Looking like the veer post cold front will not be as harsh as a NW'ly, WNW appearing to be the model solution at present.
Thursday 12 noon (+36hrs) 00z NAE: Irish sea going WNW post CF bar east of the IOM.
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by Howard Rowson
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4-12-2013 13:35:00 | |
This is a hard call for WK, if not for the breach during epic conditons WK would be firing big time with 8-10 forecast durng the peak flow from the west. Uncertainties: The flow angle once to wall clears. how long the high tide will take to retreat off the wall, with 8-10 west forcing it back in, and there is the potential that the car park may well get flooded. NAE currently indicating WNW @ 1500hrs easing to 7-9. The flow is going one way NW , so the angle is critical for the window post breach and dusk. It might be the case of sail am on the wsw and if the angle is good post ht that would be a bonus. Alternatives ....? Wells?
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by Howard Rowson
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4-12-2013 21:12:36 | |
Based on the NAE 12z run we should expect it to go to broad nw'ly sometime after 1500hrs, leaving a small window post high tide.
NAE 12z: for 1500hrs tomorrow.
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by Howard Rowson
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5-12-2013 07:40:38 | |
WKs window of opportunity post high tide diminishing, with the flow already going WNW at 12noon during the breach and broadening all the while thereafter (NAE), bummer F8-F10 WNW during the breach, NW'y by 1500hrs. GFS and UKMO wind data consistent also. Nonetheless F7-F9 WSW this morning is good to go.
Windgurus "WNW" at 1500hrs is 301 degrees, true WNW is around 292. 300 is just about as broad as it gets for a sailable angle termed "superbroad" - sailing angle about 150 degrees.
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by Howard Rowson
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5-12-2013 07:45:42 | |
Already WSW 8-10 pumping in over Hilbre.
NAE Peak: @ 1200hrs WNW'ly
game over by 1500hrs NW'ly
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by John Roberts
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6-12-2013 17:43:30 | |
Looks like you didn't want to be late getting out of the water yesterday at WK.
http://www.westkirby.org/storm-surge-pushes-car-along-west-kirby-prom/
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by Steve Thorp
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8-12-2013 22:20:43 | |
Good find Howie!!
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by Howard Rowson
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9-12-2013 20:05:17 | |
Steve ? do you mean John? 7m high tide would have breached based on what a 9.6m can do .. hell of a storm surge and WK @ its gnarliest. Makes you wonder what shite gets trapped in the lake post retreat. Back in 2008 after similar HT breach, a nice oil drum with a log trapped inside was floating down the speed course.
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by Howard Rowson
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9-12-2013 20:08:46 | |
Did Ian really get stuck in the shower block ? I noticed the lakecam and Skylink went down about 1130, Lake Wardens must have powered down and made a run for it ..
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by Steve Thorp
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10-12-2013 00:01:07 | |
Sorry John!
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by Ian Richards
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10-12-2013 00:30:15 | |
@Howie, yes when I opened the door I was confronted with a dinghy bobbing around in 1-2 foot of water, I tried to get out but it was pretty gnarly so legged it back to the showers and sat it out lol, got bored after an hour so put my wetsuit back on and walked out.
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by Howard Rowson
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12-12-2013 07:51:02 | |
That figures.- Scheiße!
The UK currently under the influence of a euro high pulling in a mild ish s-sw flow over the UK, whilst to our NW 'trouble' continually brewing with a huge storm system (943mb) to the south of greenland winding the north atlantic up big. with secondary systems tracking just to the nw of the uk rapidly deepening on approach amplifying the sw flow over the uk. This weekend sees the first hit with severe wind warning already in force force for Scotland, NI and northern fringes of northern england, with the majoiry of southern uk bathed in strong to gale s-sw flow, perhaps servere up the irish sea and storm force+ for scotland and NI. Sunday sees a second system tracking ne just to the nw of Scotland, followed by a third monday but northing like as deep as Sat/Sun's systems.
Thereafter hp to our ese erroded away as the north atlantic power edges closer to the UK with any secondaries forming in the southern flank of the big atlantic driver potentially hitting the UK as with next Thursday's ecm UK bomb. Plenty to keep an eye on over the next two weeks
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by Howard Rowson
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12-12-2013 08:06:05 | |
ECM incoming for next Thursday (potentially) destructive potential!
EC
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by Howard Rowson
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12-12-2013 18:31:10 | |
A typical example of what we coul dpossibly see hitting the uk over the next week or two.. GFS 12z
There has been a lot of hype in the media of late regarding worst winter in decades on its way, not much evidence yet, although the focus of the potential severe winter is Jan/Feb 2014 . At present it's mild and mobile to Christmas, however the above is for +324hrs , taking the run a lttle further to +384hrs first indications of arctic weather on the way are evident...... a cut off high over newfoundland linking with the greenland high, atlantic low pressure driver moving east towards norway and one final inswinging lp coming in from the sw ... thereafter the arctic northerly will follow soon.
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by Howard Rowson
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16-12-2013 08:29:30 | |
The current zonal flow set to keep on rolling with storms tracking east / NE embedded and developing in the flow. In to next week. the flow orientates a little more west east allowing storms ptentially to run into the UK. The media hype team already issued Christmas storm "Emily" to batter UK warning .. which may have some potential as the ecmwf has consistently been modelling this over the weekend.
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by Howard Rowson
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23-12-2013 16:47:18 | |
Christmas Eve 926mb! very close to the north atlantic record for depth of storm system, and this beast just off nw scotland. Later on in the week Friday sees another system rapdily deepening on approach to the uk, with associated severe gales / storm force winds, which may moderate to galeforce and veer west for saturday.....
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by Howard Rowson
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23-12-2013 16:48:46 | |
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by Adam Gustafsson
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26-12-2013 16:34:24 | |
Good wind at West Kirby tomorrow!!
Good wind in Cornwall tomorrow too!!
Good Wind in Portland tomorrow too!!
Enough said
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by Howard Rowson
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30-12-2013 09:18:57 | |
Active cold front currently sweeping across the country, with a rather agressive veer to wsw or west for WK around noon today and may hold west until dusk. Severe wind warnings in force for this afternoon may hit F8-F10 before moderating 6-8 for the remainder of the afternoon. High tide is sub breach at 8.5 and has already passed at 0840hrs.
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