Well the New Year starts on Thursday, and no better way to kick off 2015 than a good blast off the Atlantic.

New years day sees a relatively deep depression 986mb tracking Sw > NE just clipping NW Scotland at noon Thursday. With 1038mb of high pressure sat over France isobars a quite tight across the UK leading to strong to galeforce SW flow for the majoriy of UK coastal waters, the exceptions being Ireland, Irish Sea coasts and up the west of Scotland where the isos are at their tightest with a resultant gale to severe galeforce SW flow, perhaps touching stormforce in the more exposed spots. The storm system is expected to track east and hit Norway Friday as quite a vigorous feature circa 965mb. The storms cold front sweeping across the UK Thursday night leaving a strong to gale westerly flow in its wake for Friday, with storm system then located over Finland @ 955mb.

The strong to gale westerly flow on Friday is wholly reliant on the storm system deepening as per the forecast as it tracks east to Norway and on to Finland through Friday. If the system does not deepen the tight  isos (large pressure differential) will not be maintained with the resultant wind not as strong.

All the best to all for 2015!

Looking slightly further ahead , the zonal flow looks set to continue with some big storm systems tracking west to east across the northern north atlantic, makes me wonder whether we'll see a repeat of Jan 2014 which at home on Anglesey we had 19 consecutive days of severe gales of which 3 days peaked at over 100mph!  At least the conservatory is down now ... lol

Latest updates indicating the westerly flow for Friday has been moderated to F6-F7 this being more likely than F6-F8. Noon looking the windiest part of the day circa 25-30kts+, this possibly being maintained through to dusk.

A late change to the forecast for tomorrow has occcured overnight, the sw flow F7-F9 this afternoon is expected to veer West this evening moderating slightly to F6-F8, this being maintained through tomorrow morning before easing off around noon / early afternoon. The resultant Westerly flow is expected to peak during early Friday morning  (2-3am) at F7-F9 moderating to F6-F8 from dawn to mid morning then slowly easing off to F5-F7 during the early afternoon.

Early signals for the potential for a gale to severe gale sw veering west flow towards the end of next week (Friday into Saturday). One to keep a close eye on. ECMWF / MetO and GFS models concurring.

A hint of an epic Westerly flow for the Kirb Saturday the 10th  ... again , at present all forecast models concurring.

MetO now issued early warnings for severe winds for Saturday - for central and northern UK ... this one has big potential but I am not convinced yet as the models are struggling with the forecast depth of storm.

MetO have had it down @ 939mb just to the NE of Scotland midday Saturday,  which is a pretty vigorous depression. Current forecast trending towards 955-960mb with the potential for Saturday and Sunday, best case scenario ..... plenty of time for some more to'ing and fro'ing

MetO now removed severe wind warning for north wales / north west england, reserving the warnings just for scotland and northern extremes of england. Nonetheless still alot of indecision from the models as to the final track and intensity of said saturday storm. Current MetO charges for 1200hrs Saturday (+72hrs) has the sytem back down at 941mb just off the sw coast of norway, thats a full 18mb drop in pessure over the past 24hrs! Still very much F7-F9 for Saturday through to noon Sunday West to WNW. Plenty of time for further mods, either way

It certainly looks like we are pretty much locked into a mobile zonal flow for the foreseeable with rapidly deepening atlantic depressions being slungshot east just to the north of the uk with a resultant Sw veering West flow, certainly well into next week and beyond.

Focusing on the immediate though.

We currently have the first of the epic storms just to the ne of scotland @ 967mb  the flow across the uk has temporarily veered to the west,  soon backing sw as the next epic system tracks in from the west, to be situated just to the north of scotland 963mb midnight tonight. By 12 noon Saturday the system will be ne of scotland approaching the western shores of norway @ 942mb leaving the Uk bathed in a strong to violent storm force flow. Strongest of the wind for the north and ne of Scotland and the lightest winds reserved for the SW (Cornwall). The cold front likely to clear the SE of the UK around noon, the flow veering west on passing of the cold front.

West Kirby:

It is likely the cold front will clear WK around day break, the 7-9 flow veering west to wnw immediately. Based on the current MetO forecast WK is likely to be up around F7-F9 for the day perhaps easing F7-F8 towards mid to late arvo. The angle typically true West but a broader flow towards the WNW cannot be ruled out especially on the veer and again towards late morning. The wind peaking from the "West" (West to WNW) around noon,  potentially gale 8 to storm 10 for a while. (MetO wind data), although the isos do not look tight enough for a solid 8 to F10. The westerly flow should be maintained through saturday night typically F7-F8 still maintained through the morning perhaps easing off 6-8 by noon and backing to a tighter WSW angle for the remainder of Sunday.

Next week  .... WINDY  (at times)

High Tides for WK:

Saturday:

13:50 - 8.6m

Sub breach level, although a big west to wnw push in off the irish may incurr some minor breach , (wall slapped) 

Sunday:

14:26 - 8.3m

No breach

No major changes for tomorrow, perhaps a slight increase in the mean average wind speed, still F7-F9 West to WNW swan to dusk ... perhaps some F10 thrown into the mix. The peak looks to be late morning.

The wind should stay West through Sunday morning backing towards the WSW noon still up at F7/F8.

Sorry dawn to dusk ... lol

Thursday looking interesting with a 950mb storm system, this time crossing the north of the UK, to be situated in the north sea off newcastle-u-tyne around noon.

Ok .... the next system due to track in Wednesday afternoon winds peaking severe gale to storm force for most of the UK and Ireland.

Intense low situated Rockall 943mb midnight wednesday.

For the southern half of the UK winds peaking late Wednesday arvo through the evening between the warm and cold fronts,. Severe winds expected to last through Thursday for Scotland , NI and northern England. Wind not likely to veer to west for WK during daylight hours Thursday remaining on a SW to WSW flow - gusty with the flow overland across wales, up around F7-F8+ should be good for Port then tight on starboard. 

If you like a flat speed course with a slight bias to port to square and nuking with extreme gustiness West Kirby looks mental for Thursday, in particular the afternoon. Note quite as windy further south but windy nonetheless typically from the SW. 943mb just off the west coast of Scotland for noon tomorrow is pretty mental stuff.

Thursday for WK looking SW 7-9 occ 10 veering West later (after dusk).

Another opportunity for a westerly gale to hit midde of the week, as a large storm system circa 970mb tracks slowly east to the north of Scotland, with a resultant strong to galeforce westerly flow kicking in befind the cold front wednesday morning. WK looking particularly good for wednesday from noon onwards, with the potential to roll over into thursday.

updates to follow as the systems' depth, track, and intensity verifies.

A potential fly in the oinment at present is the ecmwf forecast model which is not in keeping with the MetO and GFS models which are both running toegther with this one .... a little strange at this range

The issue with the ecmwf model is the splitting of the storm system into two distinct cores which ultimately will destroy the westerly flow further north and maintain sw-wsw flow further south ..benefitting the south coast spots

The ecwwf model has this transition from one core to two cores wednesday, where as the GFS models defers this until thursday, where as the latest issued model from the MetO has backed down from the split and maintains a single centred core for the duration of wednesday and thursday.

Looking to the forecast horizon there is a potential for a very cold northerly plunge to hit the uk and western europe as we move towards next weekend and on into early Feb, the ecmwf model has been consistent with this trend for the past few days , where as the gfs model favours a short lived northerly blast to be replaced by a continuation of the zonal flow off the atlantic .. ramping up some big systems to hit as we move into the first week of the new month ...... plenty to digest there then

It is looking most likely that the storm north of Scotland midweek will deliver a strong to gale westerly from noon (tbc) wednesday through  Thursday (perhaps moderating a notch) .. not epic by any stretch of the imagination nonetheless  a good session or two, potentially to be had.

Updates to follow 

Ok .... forecast has now ramped up for WK for Wednesday & Thursday ...

Wednesday looking West F7-F9

Looking like an epic veer to West to WNW around day break with a the flow remainingg F7-F9 from the West to WNW for the day 

Thursday looking West to Wnw F6-F8

The flow moderating a notch for Thursday, but still looking good for a 2 day'r

Hilbre island just gone 40-60 knots bang on west.... Wow!!!!!

Looked at it a few times this morning and the majority of time it was hovering around 274 give or take a couple of degrees on the weather station.