Hello all, forecast models starting to look interesting for next week, worth keeping an eye on!

Tuesday, at present has the most potential for a galeforce West to WNW flow .... looking closer to WNW than West for the now based on current forecast model data.  (ECMWF, MetO and GFS) ... all models pretty consistent with the forecast at this range.

A slight change to the forecast over the past 24-36 hrs.... the current mslp charts now indicating the flow for Tuesday will be closer to West than WNW, with the wind gunning in at galeforce .... looking good!  

The high tide though is not  partticulary good @ circa 9m around 1445 which will cause a breach of the wall  being pushed in on the westerly gale .... I would expect the wall to be breached around 1415 for an hour or so.

At present the wind looks to be at its strongest and from true west from dawn until the high tide breach... post breach the wind may go wnw and drop off slightly ...

updates toi follow accordingly

Forecast remaining solid for a westerly gale tomorrow for West Kirby kicking in early around dawn staying steady F7-F8+ until the high tide breach easing down a notch to F6-F8 after the wall clears giving another couple of hours until dusk.

Based on the current MetO mslp chart for 1200 tomorrow the flow should be good for a solid F6-F8+ from the West or just north of West.

Sorry chaps forecast not exactly panning out to plan yesterday especially at the higher end of the scale, the mean had dropped from F7 to F6,  so there was some doubt as to the result Kirb side.

Another opportunity to ride again Sunday with the pressure charts looking favourable for another westerly "gale"

Just for the record anyone care to add the high tide stats here would be useful .... ie . breach time and duration ... thanks 

Hi Howard,

Don't worry, you don't have to apologise about it not being windy enough.

I think looking at the charts the next westerly gale is on Monday isn't it?

And don't forget, speedsailing is not just about west kirby!!!

Hi Adam ... it's always good to see a forecast come to fruition mate, not good when they don't. For sure mate Speedsailing is n't just about West Kirby and sailing high end speed kit... I know that mate , I have n't forgotten   and I have to admit that the topic does tend to focus on west to wnw'ly gales, but not exclusively so ... I do try to keep a uk bias rather than specifically forecasts for WK, I use to cover those in a "heads up" ... not done one of those for sometime now.

The GFS model is showing something rather epic for Monday  into Tuesday ... but completey played down by the MetO and ECMWF models , which are tending towards a Sunday storm system tracking in, it may hit too far south for .. errr that spot on the Wirral but the south coast may get a good look in .... interesting to see how this one pans out ..

Hope all is well with you and  your family !!  always good to hear from you on the topic mate

Hi Adam ... it's always good to see a forecast come to fruition mate, not good when they don't. For sure mate Speedsailing is n't just about West Kirby and sailing high end speed kit... I know that mate , I have n't forgotten   and I have to admit that the topic does tend to focus on west to wnw'ly gales, but not exclusively so ... I do try to keep a uk bias rather than specifically forecasts for WK, I use to cover those in a "heads up" ... not done one of those for sometime now.

The GFS model is showing something rather epic for Monday  into Tuesday ... but completey played down by the MetO and ECMWF models , which are tending towards a Sunday storm system tracking in, it may hit too far south for .. errr that spot on the Wirral but the south coast may get a good look in .... interesting to see how this one pans out ..

Hope all is well with you and  your family !!  always good to hear from you on the topic mate

Two for the price of one !! lol

Latest models indicating a rather complex scenario for Sunday .. with a deep storm system located over northern scotland midnight saturday @ 965mb to be located over the northern isles by noon sunday at 964mb .. The current wind stats for WK are for the wind to veer west @ day break up around F7-F9 holding through the morning and easing off through the afternoon.. The flow for the south coast to the Ray look pretty windy from the wsw - west up around F6-F8.... However the latest MetO mslp for noon Sunday tells a diffferent story with the isos not looking good for a westerly and sub galeforce with respect to the flow , staying closer to wsw and F5-F7 ... we shall see if the the wind stats get updated to reflect the mslp charts this morning.

The charts do show a secondary system tracking into the south from the west Saturday afternoon ... we need o keep an eye on this develop though .. it could stuff for the flow up for WK and leave the south coast with a poor flow also.

Monday's GFS model epic storm was indeed an outlier and was unlikely to come to pass when up against the MetOand ECWMF models ... take note!!!

Looks like the  secondary= low tracking in tomorrow is going to disrupt the flow for the UK , net result WK not seeing tight isos and a veer to west and the south coast getting not much out of the primary as the secondary low kills off the flow here too, On the whole a pretty poor outcome given the excellent forecast 48 hours ago...

That said the GFS model is  still painting a windier picture though and therefore cannot be discounted at this late hour, all models painting slightly different scenarios of how the secondary low will develop or not as it crosses the UK tomorrow

Ok the net effect on todays secondary surface low pressure system coupled with the primary low over to the north east of Scotland leaves some a westerly flow tomorrow for WK from day break fo early afternoon initially F5-F7 buidling by day break to F6-F8 lasting in early afternoon before easing off slowly and backing wsw by mid afternoon.