Hello peeps, been a while hey?  Well the Euro Block did materialise and has left us with settled weather for the last 2-3weeks with a mainly South to East quadrant flow .. hmm These Euro blocking highs can be real stubborn to shift, especially as we approach winter, and the Eu continent starts its cool down, giving rise to the dreaded block.

Still with the flow from the S-E mild temps have abounded, which are now starting to cool down to typical Nov values of 8-12 degc, replacing the balming 16-18 degc we have see of late.

meabwhile, low pressure storm systems have been kept at bay, out mid atlantic, tracking typically north, towards Iceland,

However, as we approach the last couple of weeks of Nov, early signs are now evident of a break down of said Eu High, allowing the atlantic room to breath, commencing with strong to gale southerlies towards the end of this working week.

Thereafter, the increasing likelyhood of a sw veering west flow, hopefully with some power- Autumns' last breath perhaps .......

A bit far away but there looks like strong NW for a week on Thursday. Of course everything can change by then. 

hmmm .... GFS 12z dialing in a potent little bomb next Thursday night into early Friday, will it be verified by the the other model outputs tho?   Its' track needs to be a little further west on the ne run thru the Uk for WK to get a hit on the West to WNW.

Due to the  forecast close proximity to the UK of the azores high, this little 'un only needs to drop to 1000mb to dial in F8+ ... Beats monitoring a fairly static hp cell driftng around nw europe ;)

Now thats more like it. Some early verfication across the board now evident (GFS & ECMWF backed up by the MetO mid range outlook), for a return to a mobile "off the atlantic" flow,  as we roll into next week and on towards the end November.

Eyes wide open ladies and gents.

GFS 06z model maintaining the delivery of an F10+ bomb for next Friday for the UK and North Sea facing Eu countries. Still early days as Martyn states above, however maintain a state of preparedness in anticipation of a major wind event around the end of next week.   Xc weather (GFS 06z) run currently showing what could happen for WK next Friday.

GFS dialing in the storm at sub 980mb!!  thats a 20mb drop on yesterdays 12z model run, hence the big wind numbers

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/West_Kirby

SSW though Howard, gusty I suppose but may be worth a trip if it's gusty force 8 to 10

SSW Thursday mate, Friday is the day WNW backing West.   if we are looking at the same model - GFS. Plenty of time for change though mate, The ECMWF and Met have this small storm tracking in a little further north, which may prevent the veer to wnw / w . I certainly would n't be putting any money on the GFS at this range. Although confidence in all the models is running quite well at the moment, as they are all presenting similar scenarios.

Stormtrack very quiet considering the forecast, has Anders made us all feel a bit slow lol, anyway trying to decide where and when to go this week.

Fastest conditions in the UK looking like Sunday at West Kirby with chance of a solid Westerley F6-F8 most of the day, Thursday looking good also for some Port tack / square blasting.

WED/FRI/SAT at Kirby might offer up something of a warm up for Sunday.

Elsewhere Southcoast looking good but not good tides at Portland or Southend.

Nothing worse than coming out of the starting blocks early mate.....

Since last weeks heads up on the return to a mobile atlantic flow, the charts have been chopping and changing a fair bit. I was holidng fire until we see the full weekends wind stats from the Met Office ie. Tomorrow (wednesday) for the 5 day picture.

In a way its quite fortunate that the incoming storm is on a ne track to the nw of Scotland, as we saw last week the GFS had this one coming straight up thru the UK. The current forecast wind strength wrapped around this one is a solid F10-F12 on a wnw flow, on the wraparound western flank. Based on WKs last big  hit this would probably be unsailable with huge gusts and extreme rolling chop.

There are several systems tracking in now,  one after another, typically SW-NE track to the west of Scotland with the chance of secondarys swinging in from the west, with the potential for sw veering west gales.

NB. Big tides for WK this weekend 9.5m+ late morning, Expect a 2 hrs downtime and breach of the car park railings!

Some good charts poping up for the weekend!!

Wind on the weekend blimey, some of us Weekend warriors may even be able to sail  - got an old speedboard somewhere, think I've used it once in the past year, surely that won't come out will it?

I don't see it anymore. Winds Saturday night but not enough during the day. Guernsey will be windy but thats no good for big speeds.

How is it looking Howard?

It looks like the wind is going to be through the night this weekend. Showing up now is westerly wind for Wed.

Just trying to work out if I gamble for this weekend or leave it a bit, especially with 2 hours down time because of the tide. What time is high water.

tides at WK

Yeah!! All the wind has now gone for the weekend. Stupid long range forecasts! Whoever makes them and posts them is an idiot!

Not the first time I have been called an idiot and to be fare I have been called a lot worse, mostly by my wife. Can't help it though Adam I desperate to get back up to WK, still getting excited after 30 years windsurfing must be doing something right.

.

HI Martyn, Sorry I'm certainly not calling you an idiot!!! Its those weather forecasters that post those superb charts on GFS etc a few days before the weekend and the forecast gradually gets worse day by day until you reach the weekend and it ends up being Zero Beaufort! I've forgotten how many times this has happened... Think I need to stop looking at ling range charts myself! My wife definetly calls me worse things than an idiot too!! LOL

Glad you clarified that Ads  ;)

A saving grace that the GFS model at long range did n't verify, the storm that was gonna hit the UK later tonight and tomorrow based on last weeks GFS model looks to be hitting 948mb!!! to the south of Iceland with Hurricane force + winds on southern and western flanks.. that would have ripped the UK up big time.

In all honesty though you cannot read one particular model on its own, you have to take all models and look at each in the context of the general theme, Exact details and timings of stormtracks is too loose at anything at 5 days+ out. We start to see things taking shape at the 5 day mark with 3 days being the preferred point for a very good idea. The trend over the past few days has been one of diminishing windflow, with the storms systems tracking away to the north and east quicker than previously forecast.

The mobile setup with storms deepening rapdily is hard one to forecast and track exact details.   Now we are the 3 day mark thats when we can look at models with any conviction and belief.

Still Sunday showed potential last night, although winds moderating thru that day quite quickly, with the best chance of 6-8 west-wnw first light to high tide breach.

Overnight the models have come back again with Sundays storm still delivering a storm force west to wnw flow for the northern half of the UK with Wk in the line of fire for possible perfect gale to severe gale force west - wnw flow.

more on this later

Can anyone - especially local -  give an estimate of when the wall is likely to breach on sunday and when is first light?  as it is likely to be a little different to the lighting up times down south that down south!! 3 hr sailing window perhaps? (Probably enough!)

Based on Pauls' Hilbre data above of 9,39m @ 11.51, depending on the windflow direction, thus the push in off the Irish Sea the wall may well be breach from around 10:30 - 10:45 thru 12:30 - 12:45, difficult to be exact to the nearest 1/4 hr.

I'll keep an eye on current WK Cam, todays HT was at 0930hrs @ 9.26m and tomorrow 1017hrs @ 9.46m

I'll see when the HT retreats off the wall and breachs and retreats tomorrow, that'll will give us some indication to breach and retreat times for Sunday.

Ok 10:25 now that tide appears to have retreated off the wall. Thats about +1hr after high tide @ 9.26. Sundays 9.39m coupled with a big w-wnw push I would expect the wall to be clear around 1hr 15mins post high tide. Will check tomorrows breach time on the wk cam.

Thanks Howard.

What is the light like there. Would sailing at 7.30am be possible, I'd like a 3hr window if possible to justify any driving!! I don't mind going out if its a little dark, didn't cause any problems surfing last weekend!!!

Righto we have a good angle on Fridays' windflow now for WK, based on the current Mescoscale to 1800hrs Friday.

http://cobs.pol.ac.uk/modl/metfcst/surpress/latest.php?im=13 

We have some consistancy across all model and wind data both from the GFS model and MetO data for a westerly tomorrow afternoon with the flow somewhere up in the 6-8 bracket, peaking mid afternoon, but remaining solid thru to dusk.

Friday evening sees the flow backing to the south and moderating, increasing again from the SSW Saturday afternoon to strong to galeforce as the 3rd storm system starts to wind itself up to the nw of Scotland. Saturday night the systems track is good, tracking east of the orkneys towards SW Norway maintaining depth of pressure and encouraging a west to wnw flow for Sunday.

The flow for Sunday should be on the veer from SW to West well before day break, providing a crack of dawn start with a sold 7-9 from the west, broadening to wnw mid morning, then veering back to west post high tide retreat, early afternoon, with the flow still up at 7-9 until mid arvo, when the wind strength will begin to moderate, but still remaining strong to gale til dusk from the west.

Still early days for Sundays' ultimate track, depth and windflow of the system, but at present ...looking good.

I'll update as necessary  given the very lastest issued stats. 

Hi mate, looking at the weather stats, the cold front and rain should clear before day break, therefore I would expect some clearance by dawn, breaking around 7:15 to 7:30. Again tho' the timing of the cold front at this range is hard to call.

For those who are planning just Sunday, the situation should be crystal clear thru Saturday,

It's too hard to call for those who are coming from afar to catch Fridays veer to west, chance the SSW Saturday arvo, and the potential west/wnw Sunday. Obviously locals have the benefit of taking it as it comes.

Workwsie I have little chance of making any day at present .... c'est la vie

Apologies for the West Kirby bias, I'll get  a UK round up sometime this arvo.

UK's brush with "explosive" weather 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/15859162 

lol ... thanks for the link Mike

I quote from last Friday

"GFS 06z model maintaining the delivery of an F10+ bomb for next Friday for the UK and North Sea facing Eu countries. Still early days as Martyn states above, however maintain a state of preparedness in anticipation of a major wind event around the end of next week. Xc weather (GFS 06z) run currently showing what could happen for WK next Friday.

GFS dialing in the storm at sub 980mb!! thats a 20mb drop on yesterdays 12z model run, hence the big wind numbers

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/West_Kirby"

The forecast track of this storm is actually only a few degrees out from actual track. All the models pretty much were on to this last week, So in terms of the 5-7 day window they were pretty much on the nail  ..... 947mb though, that's in keeping with the direct hit of october '87 ... not really the kind of storm we need hitting us in  the face. 

Wish the "idiots" would stop using my phrases  ...  Actually the Met / Beeb forecasters are pretty good, unlike the Sky muppets, who don't know the difference between their ar*e and their elbow, (translate that as West and Northwest) excluding ex MetO/Beeb Isobel Lang. 

The forecast still holding for tomorrow pm for the veer to west for WK, both MetO data, Mesoscale and inshore forecast all reporting 30-40kts from the west sometime early afternoon to 1500hrs lasting thru to dusk. The GFS 12z wind data also has the flow, but as per usual not quite the strength of flow.

Saturday still holding to a decent port tack flow from the ssw/sw come the afternoon.

Sunday  ... stlight easing off of the flow, but we are still looking at F7/F8-F9 from first light to high tide breach at 10:30'ish  from the west to wnw. With the flow moderating to F6-F8 for the post high tide afternoon sesh.

The best of the flow for the weekend looks reserved for the northern half of the UK with not much happening down south in terms of strong to galeforce winds.

We'll have a look first thing tomorrow and see how the overnight stats have changed if at all.

Just found the MetO +72hr chart for Sunday 12 noon, confirming a moderation of  the flow, and the storm tracking east  ene into Norway a little quicker than the previous +84hr chart for noon Sunday ... I hope this is not a repeat of the backing off trend we saw earlier this week, that Adam highlighted above, with the windlow looking more F5-F7 by noon .... hmmm

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=ukmo&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=72&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Compare the above +72hr for noon Sunday with the previous +84hr noon Sunday here

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Isos significantly more spaced on the +72hr latest update..

ok, 

The westerly flow is still on for this afternoon, peaking around mid afternoon, poss 6-8, easing overnight and backing sw before increasing thru Saturday morning, to be a strong to gale sw'er for the afternoon. Winds continuing to strengthen from the sw Saturday night ahead of the cold front passing east early Sunday morning. Wind veering wnw after the coid front and remaining strong to galeforce until the high tide breach around 10:30 (tbc later this morning on reviewing todays breach)

The wind slowly moderating during the breach and backing west, but still at the moment of a west 5-7 until darkness falls.

Slightly disappointing that the storm appears to be whistling thru on a faster track, with the tightest of isobars and westerly veer before daybreak probably F7-F9. Still ... half a chance is better than no chance.

Updates to follow thru the day, and this mornings' high tide breach feedback ....HT @ Hilbre 10:17 @ 9.46m, I would be expecting to see the breach commence around 0900hrs.

Sorry Paul, thanks for posting the Wk w/stn link :)

Looking a the lake cam the breach has commenced during the past 15 mins, therefore expect the breach to commence around about 1hr prior to high tide, perhaps a little earlier with a w-wnw push in off the Irish sea. Therefore approx 10:30-10:45 Sunday.

Just a quick update from the inshore waters forecast for GOH to MOG covering Liverpool Bay

Great Orme Head to the Mull of Galloway

Strong winds are forecast

For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from 1200 UTC Fri 25 Nov until 1200 UTC Sat 26 Nov

24 hour forecast:

Wind

West backing southwest later, 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 at first.

 

Sea State

Moderate or rough.

 

Weather

Showers at first, rain later.

 

Visibility

Moderate or good.

Outlook for the following 24 hours: (1200hrs Sunday)

Wind

Southwest veering northwest later 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 for a time.

 

Sea State

Moderate or rough.

 

Weather

Occasional rain, showers later.

 

Visibility

Moderate or good.

Looks like the wall breach receded by 11:20-11:30, 1- 1 hr 15mins post high tide, Therefore 1300-1315hrs Sunday

Wind on the veer to west at present, 260deg,  22kts gusting 27kts at the sailing club.

http://skylink-pro.com/env/wirralsailing/index.php

The Met office have now issued a code yellow severe weather warning sat 0900 to sun 0900 for high winds covering northwales and northwest england

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html

Currently the flow is still a few degrees shy of west and blowing in around a constant 24kts 

We currently have a trough of low pressure tracking east across the area, hopefully once  cleared the flow will be veering west +, and on the up.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_latest_pressure.html

Ok a final look at the forecast for the weekend.

No real change on the MetO mslp charts from the 60hr to the 48hr for Sunday noon, circa F5-F7 w-wnw at noon.

Data for first light to high tide breach would indicate West veering WNW F6-F8 commencing F7-F9 post cold front and veer from SW to West early Sunday morn. So hopefully you'll catch the tail end of 7-9, but 6-8 should still be the flow to the breach. Somewhere between West and WNW, hopefully and Ideally WbN :)

Good wind and speed

H

Highly unlikely I'll be able to make it .. so catch yuz'all on the next'un

Quite rewarding eating breakie and mulling over the times from West Kirby for the two "small" opportunities that opened up Friday pm and Sunday am. Well done to all :) despite Sundays' conditiions coming thru on the edge of insanity.

We are now in the thick of what I would describe as proper Autumnal Zonal flow, with the Jet stream firing up and sending storm after storm eastwards across the atlantic, interspersed with ridges of high pressure.

Plenty of wind on offer this week for the UK & Eire.

West Kirby may again see a veer from the S-Sw to West Tuesday pm for another "small window" of opportunity to sail, as too does Thursday morning. The predominant flow for the week though is SW, with all Uk waters catching some decent wind thru the week.

As we close the door on November and open up "winters' door for December the Atlantic still, in relentless fashion, continues to stay primed and fired up with the mobile flow not letting up.

This leads us on to the first weekend of December, which at this range, across all models, is looking primed for another sw veering west to wnw hit, as another major storm system tracks west-east just north of Scotland, and again, gales or severe gale force winds on the cards.  

Mesoscale dialing in the west to wnw veer tomorrow pm behind the vigorous cold front, seeing huge southerly flow ahead of said front. This will be one agressive veer hitting Anglesey at noon F10 southerly to F7-F9 WNW.

I would expect the veer to hit Wk about 1330hrs with the tide starting to recede off the wall around 1415hrs.

Timing looks to be the biggest issue for the weekend wind, we don't want it peaking from the west Saturday night, as per the current 06z run on the GFS. MetO and Ecm favouring Sunday at present.

YES ! ! ! !     Timing is the key this weekend Howard !     Yes it's bad timing I've booked a weekend away wiv the boys mountain biking in Spain......BOLLOCKS  I just might have to cancel,,,,,,It's me again : (

LOL you are so quick on FB mate, cannot keep up with you.

Ok just to clarify the current situation

The GFS 06z run this morning had the storm's westerly flow kicking in mid saturday afternoon, peaking thru the evening leaving not too much for Sunday.

The MetO 06z run and ECW 00z run had the flow building Satiurday pm from the wsw veering west to wnw for Sunday.

Both models on the 12z update have swapped postions on this one.

GFS 12z running in the strongest of the westerly Sunday now,

Where as the MetO are bringing the westerly flow in Saturday pm, easing off for Sunday.

nice one!

on to the ecm update at 1900hrs then, for something completely different ..........

Difficult one to nail down this. Cannot see the wood for the trees at present, with the Atlantic firing on all 12.

GFS / MetO models bouncing the weekends storm around between Saturday and Sunday. Ecmwf model pretty solid over the last couple of updates.

This morning's updates tend to favour a westerly flow kicking in Saturday peaking Saturday night and slowly easing off thru Sunday ... and then comes Monday.  We will look at Monday later.

The forecast location and track of the weekends storm has been on the move. Initially coming in from newfoundland towards the faroes ( just north of Scotland) however succesive updates have kept the storm up near Iceland tracking east in to the Norwegian Sea. With this in mind the flow has eased off a notch or two.

At present.

Saturday sees the storms cold front swing east, clearing Wk mid morning with the wind veering west post front. Isos's tight enough for a West F5-F7.

Isos's tightening up a notch as the afternoon progresses to evening , with the flow increasing to F6-F8. This then should be the numbers for Sunday, still westerly, best of of the wind early on.

The charts get a little complicated from then on, with the emergence of a secondary low swinging in from the west across Ireland late Sunday. The models are playing around with this one, ramping it up into an F10 Bomb as it tracks east into the north sea and on to northern Holland / Germany / Denmark.

above post cont'd

Both ECMWF and GFS are currently ramping this little powerhouse up to epic status, MetO dumbing it down somewhat. Therefore at present still very much an open book on this one.

Thereafter the North Atlantic still has all the ingredients in place for the continuation of the active mobile flow.

Today:

An interesting afternoon could be on the cards at West Kirby with broad on port veering to broad on starboard mid afternoon, F6-F8 could be the flow. An outside chance, as ever of being too broad on both tacks. 

Is it my wishful thinking or does Monday look like judgement day!!

I'll let you be the judge on that one Martyn

GFS 06z run now complete, hell bent on bringing the westerly late in the day Saturday, with the wind backing wsw>sw Sunday as the secondary swings in for Monday. Its current track will have the wind too broad for WK Monday, ok by Tuesday but just the dregs of wind remaining.

Still a couple of hours of potential fast and broad this arvo down WK 1400-1430 hrs to dusk. wnw and 30-40kts.

You are in between cold fronts bud, the 2nd and last front is approaching Anglesey now with the veer thereafter, watching for the veer to west at home and timing to WK of the veer.

Veer to West on Anglesey now, a little limp in the resultant flow, lets hope it builds as the isos tighten up again

Monday doesn't look good anymore. This Forecast is changing like the weather!!

I'll say mate....

I was filming the cold front hitting Knutsford around 1430, looked really gnarly the sky, primed for Tornado drop. It turns out that one did drop around 1430hrs near Stockport (16miles north of work) couple of hundred metres from where I used to live.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-15948258

GFS model not dealing too well with the shortwave intense lows ... hmm

MetO data pretty conistant tho'  ....

Still saturday afternoon good for a westerly flow, 25-35kts+

Sunday tricky one at the mo ... sorta WSW 20-30kts

Where as Monday could still be on with a  West to WbN 25-35kts+

There is a distinct possibility that once the westerly flow is established Saturday it may continue at least until Wednesday, albeit wind strengths varying day to day, a min 25kts with max wind strengths of 35kts+

Lots of info to take in this morning following the overnight and early morning model runs.

Winds strengthen through the day from the S-SW, as the next low pressure system tracks east just north of Scotland. Winds easing off generally tomorrow but could be strong to galeforce west on the veer early morning.

Friday .... the lull before the storm(s) ... lull .. yes ... storms .. maybe

A deep area of low pressure tracks east towards Iceland thru Friday, by early Saturday its location is just SE of Iceland, with a strong to gale Uk wide Sw'ly building before day break. Cold front sweeps SE, clearing Wk before or around daybreak with a veer to west (sounds familiar) strong to gale setup for Saturday.

Up to this point all models tending to agree with the synopsis, Sunday sees some significant divergence between Met, GFS and ECM models.

The MetO and ECM tending to favour a decrease in winds thru Sunday and backing wsw from Saturdays westerly, then veering w-wnw for monday, maintaining this flow through most of next week, strong to gale for the best part.

On last nights GFS 18z run "The F10 Bomb" re-appeared tracking east across the Uk late Sunday. Winds backing WSW then S-SW rather quickly Sunday as the area of low pressure tracks in from the west thru Ireland,  deepening rapdily on a powered up jet the storm tracks east across northern england early sunday evening, to be located just east of Denmak by day break Monday, by then the storm exceptionally deep, battering NE France, Belgium, Holland, Denamark and Germany from the west to NW, with solid F10 winds wrapped around the core with gusts in excess of 70-80kts. meanwhile the UK bathed in a wnw gale. By noon Monday the storm has drifted a little further east to mid Baltic, with a strong to gale w-wnw maintained for the UK, whilst our neighbours over the north sea continue to get a pounding with severe gale and violent storm force gusts, winds tending to veer wnw/nw, with hurricane force northerlies hammering down the western flank thru Denmark ... nice ... not. By late Monday the strong to gale wnw maintained across the UK, winds slowly easing for europe from the west with the winds backing w-wnw, whilst Poland and the Baltic states get a thumping, as the storm grinds path out towards Russia.

Therafter the flow remains from the west strong to gale at times.

Ok. .. perhaps a little too in depth with  the GFS analysis, as the chances of that coming off with no verification from the ecmwf and Meto and pretty slim. 

On the third attempt I get Denmark correct ... apologies for the typos Danish speedies

I'll put November to bed now and commence December's Stormtrack