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  November Stormtrack - Finally
11/16/2011 2:37:59 PMHoward Rowson

Hello peeps, been a while hey?  Well the Euro Block did materialise and has left us with settled weather for the last 2-3weeks with a mainly South to East quadrant flow .. hmm These Euro blocking highs can be real stubborn to shift, especially as we approach winter, and the Eu continent starts its cool down, giving rise to the dreaded block.

Still with the flow from the S-E mild temps have abounded, which are now starting to cool down to typical Nov values of 8-12 degc, replacing the balming 16-18 degc we have see of late.

meabwhile, low pressure storm systems have been kept at bay, out mid atlantic, tracking typically north, towards Iceland,

However, as we approach the last couple of weeks of Nov, early signs are now evident of a break down of said Eu High, allowing the atlantic room to breath, commencing with strong to gale southerlies towards the end of this working week.

Thereafter, the increasing likelyhood of a sw veering west flow, hopefully with some power- Autumns' last breath perhaps .......

11/16/2011 3:35:48 PMMartyn Ogier

A bit far away but there looks like strong NW for a week on Thursday. Of course everything can change by then. 

11/17/2011 7:24:42 PMHoward Rowson

hmmm .... GFS 12z dialing in a potent little bomb next Thursday night into early Friday, will it be verified by the the other model outputs tho?   Its' track needs to be a little further west on the ne run thru the Uk for WK to get a hit on the West to WNW.

Due to the  forecast close proximity to the UK of the azores high, this little 'un only needs to drop to 1000mb to dial in F8+ ... Beats monitoring a fairly static hp cell driftng around nw europe ;)

 

11/18/2011 12:14:13 PMHoward Rowson

Now thats more like it. Some early verfication across the board now evident (GFS & ECMWF backed up by the MetO mid range outlook), for a return to a mobile "off the atlantic" flow,  as we roll into next week and on towards the end November.

Eyes wide open ladies and gents.

11/18/2011 12:39:48 PMHoward Rowson

GFS 06z model maintaining the delivery of an F10+ bomb for next Friday for the UK and North Sea facing Eu countries. Still early days as Martyn states above, however maintain a state of preparedness in anticipation of a major wind event around the end of next week.   Xc weather (GFS 06z) run currently showing what could happen for WK next Friday.

GFS dialing in the storm at sub 980mb!!  thats a 20mb drop on yesterdays 12z model run, hence the big wind numbers

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/West_Kirby

11/18/2011 2:35:00 PMMartyn Ogier

SSW though Howard, gusty I suppose but may be worth a trip if it's gusty force 8 to 10

 

11/18/2011 2:45:41 PMHoward Rowson

SSW Thursday mate, Friday is the day WNW backing West.   if we are looking at the same model - GFS. Plenty of time for change though mate, The ECMWF and Met have this small storm tracking in a little further north, which may prevent the veer to wnw / w . I certainly would n't be putting any money on the GFS at this range. Although confidence in all the models is running quite well at the moment, as they are all presenting similar scenarios.

11/21/2011 7:16:48 PMIan Richards

Stormtrack very quiet considering the forecast, has Anders made us all feel a bit slow lol, anyway trying to decide where and when to go this week.

Fastest conditions in the UK looking like Sunday at West Kirby with chance of a solid Westerley F6-F8 most of the day, Thursday looking good also for some Port tack / square blasting.

WED/FRI/SAT at Kirby might offer up something of a warm up for Sunday.

Elsewhere Southcoast looking good but not good tides at Portland or Southend.

 

11/22/2011 11:40:56 AMHoward Rowson

Nothing worse than coming out of the starting blocks early mate.....

Since last weeks heads up on the return to a mobile atlantic flow, the charts have been chopping and changing a fair bit. I was holidng fire until we see the full weekends wind stats from the Met Office ie. Tomorrow (wednesday) for the 5 day picture.

In a way its quite fortunate that the incoming storm is on a ne track to the nw of Scotland, as we saw last week the GFS had this one coming straight up thru the UK. The current forecast wind strength wrapped around this one is a solid F10-F12 on a wnw flow, on the wraparound western flank. Based on WKs last big  hit this would probably be unsailable with huge gusts and extreme rolling chop.

There are several systems tracking in now,  one after another, typically SW-NE track to the west of Scotland with the chance of secondarys swinging in from the west, with the potential for sw veering west gales.

NB. Big tides for WK this weekend 9.5m+ late morning, Expect a 2 hrs downtime and breach of the car park railings!

11/22/2011 12:43:38 PMAdam Gustafsson

Some good charts poping up for the weekend!!

Wind on the weekend blimey, some of us Weekend warriors may even be able to sail  - got an old speedboard somewhere, think I've used it once in the past year, surely that won't come out will it?

   
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