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  Heads up - West Kirby Tue/Wed 3rd-4th January 2012
12/31/2011 11:49:08 AMHoward Rowson

Ok ..

Current forecasts remaining consistant for a rapidly deepening inswinger to track in across or just north of Scotland Tuesday, with severe gales wrapped around the system. The cold front is expected to swing through the UK during early Tuesday morning, with a resultant westerly flow kicking in post cold front.

Current thoughts are for a broadening flow after the front somewhere around west, perhaps wsw / w. The trend tho, as the storm tracks east for the flow to broaden by noon to true west, remaining west for the afternoon and into the evening.

Wind typically F7-F9 with gusts to F10+.

The flow should remain into Wednesday, perhaps moderating slightly F6-F8+ remaining west to wnw.

Tides are around the low 7's so a breach of the wall is unikely.

The current storm track is by no means set in stone, there remains , at this range, some uncertainty to the depth and track of the storm, with the chance of a track further south over the eng/sco border. If this is the case the flow may come through slightly broader. It is expected that it will not be too broad, based on current stats.

Updates to follow accordingly.

1/1/2012 4:33:32 AMHoward Rowson

Severe weather warnings -severe gales now in force for most of England and Wales for Tuesday,

Severe SW gales ahead of the cold front veering west thereafter, with the potential now for F8-F10 for WK from the west.

Timing of the cold front appearing to clear SE England around noon, with the isos really tightening up for the afternoon for north wales and nw england.

Wednesday still looking good for a strong to gale westerly am,  backing wsw sometime during the afternoon.

1/1/2012 12:55:37 PMHoward Rowson

Ok ..

Current forecasts indicating the storm to be located to the n/ne of scotland midday Tuesday. Still and outside chance of the storm tracking in across Scotland.

The storms cold front swinging e/se across the UK clearing the SE by midday / early afternoon, with a resultant westerly veer kicking in after the front. SW Severe Gales in the warm sector ahead of the cold front.

Tuesday.

Severe Gale - Storm force winds ahead of the cold front probably before first light.

am. West F7-F8 gusts to F9

pm. West F6-F8 gusts to F9

Wednesday. Sees a 2nd storm tracking east to the north of Scotland, associated weather fronts causing the wind to back towards the wsw.

The flow moderating somewhat and backing wsw pm. F6-F8+ Still likely during the morning.

Thursday: Depending on the outcome of tue/wed resultant flow, Thursday could see a potential extra day, but for now, based on current stats:

Wind veering WNW F6-F7 gusts to F8+ perhap Westerly am.

 

1/3/2012 10:27:52 AMHoward Rowson

Current storm track is further south tracking e-ene across central Scotland.@ 960mb, gusts over 100mph being reported across NI and Scotland.

The cold front has now passed West Kirby and is tracking SE across the UK.  The storm should continue its track and deepen to the low 950's as it exists Scotland into the North Sea. 

1/3/2012 10:30:51 AMHoward Rowson

Not sure what has happened to the update 2/1/12 at 12:25 should be no.4 (thread indicating 5 posts, only 4 visible ???)

1/3/2012 12:58:03 PMHoward Rowson

The westerly flow looks to be establishing itself now, after backing wsw after the initial westerly veer post cold front.

The Westerly should peak around 1500hrs F8 with gusts to F10, and again after dark around 2100hrs

Early feedback from Daz, Kirbside, Hans has a  50kt + peak in  the bag on a tight wsw course with bear offs into the chop.

 

Wednesday:

Initially Westerly F6-F8 backing WSW mid arvo F6-F8, veering west mid evening F7-F9

Thursday:

hmmm.. close call for a WNW -  F7-F9 gusts to F10 during the morning, easing F6-F8 pm WNW ..

WNW forecast at present but the chance of superbroad , killer chop a possibility. 

 

1/3/2012 1:37:35 PMHans Kleingeld

Thanks for the updates Howard! Here in the Netherlands also good conditions at Horst with recently a 50 kts gust and avg 7-8 Bft. Cold front which has passed by West Kirby is now approaching the Dutch Coast with some nasty line convection, see radar. With the current conditions at Horst, I am really hoping for topspeeds close to 50 Kts, but maybe  I am a little too enthousiastic;-). We have another 2 hours until windshift about 15.30.

1/3/2012 1:42:09 PMHans Kleingeld

1/3/2012 5:19:46 PMGraham Clegg

Well done to Daz. New PB and first to post over 40kts for 2012!

1/3/2012 8:10:41 PMGraham Clegg

Video of today available here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnfoYv3-we4

 

   
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