Well after several months of tools down after nearly being blown off the planet back in January with 19 days of severe gales, 3 days of which saw wind speeds peak at 100mph+. Finally the wind machine is back up and running, earlier than expected.

August not normally a month for big winds, "usually" reserved for the Autumn / Winter, but now and again we get the tail end of Hurricanes recurving across the atlantic towards the UK.

We currently have Hurricane Bertha on the radar. At this stage though, ultimate track, depth and timing still to be determined. Sunday into early next week is the potential window for wind for the UK, Eire and our neighbours across the Channel and North Sea.

Interesting developments over the past 36hrs with the track , depth and intensity of Bertha. Initially both ECMWF and MetO models playing down any significant hit to the UK from said ex-hurricane, leaving the NavGem and GFS models forecasting a potential wet and windy hit on the UK. Todays 12z model output from the MetO show a significant swing towards the outputs from the GFS and NavGem models with substantial intensification of the storm on approach to the UK early Sunday tracking sw-ne across the southern half of the UK through Sunday. It does, at present leave the south coast firing Sunday initially from the south veering round to the north west as the storm tracks ne exiting into the north sea around the Wash Sunday afternoon.

Worth keeping an eye on to see who the situation develops for Sunday, and perhaps Monday if the transit of the storm across the UK and into the north sea sets up a west or wnw flow for Monday.

High tide for Southend Sunday is around 1300hrs , which could be bad timing if the storm develops as per the MetO model output above. However, as its still August,  a late arvo / early evening sesh may well be on the cards. 

Potential for a westerly gale dawn raid down the Kirb, with F5-F7 still on around 1400hrs.

Still plenty of time for changes , no doubt! 

Thanks H, keep us posted:)  Its looking like WK might delivere a few days of speed sailing from Sunday night onwards.  

looking like the tide will breach for a few hours

When you think the MetO have the forecast dialed then they drop in a skunka' of a model not good at this late stage. GFS still retining some semblance of storm.. just.  Tomorrows updates pivotal as to whether the MetO current 12z model is rogue or not. ECMWF thus far have n't entertained any decent storm development from ex Bertha, I would n't be suprised if that remains the case. 

Ecwwf 12z still resolute with no significant deepening of the storm as it approaches / passes over the UK, at least until its out 'o way in the north sea.

Damp squib comes to mind, still plenty of time for developments but tthe forecast window is closing.

GFS and MetO 12Z now pulling the storm in slighly further from the west with a track sw-ne further west, some amplification of the storms' intensity dialed in too... this could be interesting, as you can see from xcw,  really ramping the storm up with a galeforce westerly banging into the west on the sourthern flank...  MetO not quite as entusiastic with the flow ...nonetheless better model outputs than 24hrs ago...and heading in the right direction..

ok .. starting to get a better feel for the track and intensity of ex Bertha, as she transits the UK tomorrow from the SW to the NE, very wet weather coupled with a swathe of gales on the southern flank of the storm as it transits ne and deepens. Timing and track will determine what spot fires and when. It is likely to be a short lived event with perhaps only a small window for the strongest of the flow, potentially Sunday afternoon as the storm tracks into northern england deepening all the while.

Keep a close eye on your local spot forecast as we close in on this weather event.

WK may get some galeforce westerly late afternoon / early evening for a while.

The south coast around to the wash likely to be from the south to the east of the IOW at first as the storm tracks in and west to wnw the further west you go. Then predominanly west backing wsw for the afternoon once the storm tracks inland and north east up through england.

The MetO now have a yellow warning for wind issued, covering a central swathe of the UK, Anglesey down to Kent, As ex Bertha tracks NE across England, with some intensification, a swathe of westerly gales is currently developing on the sw flank of the storm, west kiirby likely to be affected later this afternoon from the west, as too is Southend later this afternoon from the sw/wsw. The storms current centre is around Bristol, moving NE.

West to WNW's already kicking in out over Cornwall and Devon, with Southerlies down in the South East of England

Yes it all came together quite welll with most speed spots getting a look in. Thought it was n't going to happen based on some of the forecasts last week.

Some nice pbs to boot .. great vmax mate, well done!

Potential for a further west to wnw this coming Sunday, one to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

All models currently have consensus regarding the low pressure system over Iceland Saturday to sink South east towards NE Scotland for Sunday, deepening all the while. The current forecast flow indicated from both GFS and MetO models and wind data to be circa F5-F7 West to WNW veering NW late Sunday / Sunday night. F6-F8 cannot be ruled out at present especially if the system hits sub 990mb off the north east of Scotland over Shetland during Sunday.

Lol, MetO Wind data just upped to F6-F8 West to WNW as I write ... High tides are dropping off now and should be down at 8m for Sunday @ 0416 hrs - 8.6m and @ 1645hrs - 8.0m  therefore below breach levels for the day.

When we see a Westerly flow developing on the charts its always nice to see a clean flow with no weather fronts interrupting the wind,  usually behind a cold front with tight ISO's wrapping in behind. The current synopsis shows the cold front sweeping through around midnight, following the CF an occluded front is hovering out west over Iireland alinged north  / south, ideally we need that to stay out west, keeping the flow clean over WK.

I'm Back!!!!!!

hope to see some faces on Sunday....

 Daz, good stuff mate, not quite ready myself yet. (No speed board as of yet primarily down to no money , its all going on the continued refurbishment of the house and toyz for the twins) still with the elusive westerly not missing out too much. Hopefully this autumn will see a return to a more seasonal zonal flow with plenty of storms to keep all happy. Having said that .. two westerlies in a week or so is a good start!

The forecast for Sunday continues the theme of low pressure sinkimg south east  from Iceland towards north east Scotland for Sunday circa 990mb which at present will generate a West to WNW flow for the day circa F5 to F7 possibly F6-F8. The flow should commence as a westerly probably gradually veering WNW as the day progresses. GFS model wind data closer to F5-F7 where as the MetO notching the flow up to F6-F8. translated to 25-35kts+

fingers crossed then , need a kirby session been a while, welcome back daz :)

Cool....

Ok The forecast continuing to be good for Sunday. Current anticpated flow looking:

AM: Day Break to Noon: West F5-F7

Noon to Dusk: WbN F5-F7 slowly veering WNW by early afternoon and increasing F6-F8.

Not expecting any major late changes through tomorrow .. so pretty much good to go.

Anything noteworthy and I'll update accordingly.

Just to note that Saturday (tomorrow) may also deliver a westerly until late afternoon F5-F6 poss F5-F7