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  Heads up West Kirby USM - Sunday 8th March 2009
3/6/2009 8:43:44 AMHoward Rowson

OK folks, time to dust down yer gear, charge the gps's and get ready to rock.

Late Saturday sees a deep storm tracking in off the Atlantic, expected 968mb just off NW Scotland 0000hrs Sunday, tight isos down to mid wales.

Windflow likely to veer west after the cold front  clearing eastern England during the wee small hours of Sunday. Slight fly in the ointment - the wind may back a little tighter to WbS / WSW thru the morning before slowly veering west to wnw into Monday.

Wind strength should be a solid F7 with giusts to F9+.
Epic conditions could prevail.

Monday - epic! W-WNW F8+, however the lake is supposed to be closed, but it would appear from Cleggy's findings access to sail could be ok - we ccould do with this confirming from either the lake wardens or Wirral Borough Council before the Heads Up can be extended into Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday is expected to be strong to galeforce westerly.

regards
H

 
3/6/2009 9:45:50 AMAdam Gustafsson

Hi Howard,
Thanks for the headsup and all updates
I will make a decision tomorrow and see how things work out... It's a long drive and I'm skint!!!!!!!
If some of The other Cornish/Devon Speedsailors are going too I probably will be well up for it!
If not I think Daymer will be ok for a fun sail.
Fingers crossed for good wind - Certainly looks pretty windy on the met office charts at the moment.
3/6/2009 10:09:34 AMMartin Waldron

What is the condition of the lake, from some posts it seemed barely sailable due to silting?

Loved hearing about the dead dogs in the bottom considering I always sail barefoot and have cut my foot every time I've sailed there, f*$@ing gross
3/6/2009 12:40:39 PMSteve Thorp

Could be ok for wavesailing at Rossy on Saturday, if any of the travellers are thinking of making a weekend of it..

Looking better for Kirby now!
3/6/2009 3:35:49 PMGraham Clegg

Sunday is still looking good, maybe turning a hint more southerly.
Just phoned the lake and apparently they'll be moving the machinery into place next week, so officially the lake is closed. However, I got the impression that as long as you don't park in the car park they wouldn't seem to mind if you chucked your board over the wall and went for a sail (as long as you don't get in the way of things).
Martin the wall is still sailable, but is getting shallow at the north end and there is a risk of grounding your fin, but this adds to the excitement. Personally, I've always been ok with a speed board with a 20cm fin, but I have grounded a 35cm fin on my slalom board.
Giff from reliance marine reckons that they won't dredge the lake, as they used to dump the dredged mud off Tansky rocks (about a mile out from West Kirby). Apparently, this is now prohibited and it now has to go to landfill, which is mega expensive. He thinks they will be just shift the mud around with a bulldozer to level things out.
I'll have to get the metal detector out, there must be tons of lost watches, gps, and fins in there!
3/7/2009 10:00:09 AMHoward Rowson

Ok folks, I'll keep checking the forecasts thru the day, just the fine detail to finalise now.

This mornings' updates Met / Meso do indicate the wind backing from west to wsw Sunday am before veering West around noon. Windflow should then stay West Sunday pm, evening and into Monday.

Wind strength likely to be F5-F7 Sunday am WbS/WSW, Sunday pm West F6-F8, possibly strengthening F7-F8 late afternoon and into the evening.

Monday am looking West F6/F7 probably easing off a tad pm.

Due to the unstable cold airflow and a couple of frontal troughs passing thru, expect big squalls poss to F9 with everything but the kitchen sink thrown at us. Even tho' we are in March and the sun is getting warmer, and may be shining thru the day, it'll be a tad Bitter.

Tides:

Sunday: High tide at Hilbre around 8:40 8.3m,, we may see a breach for a wee while.
Monday: 9:33 8.9m, that'll breach proably 9am to 9:45, perhaps earlier if there's a push in off the Irish.

Safe journeys' , good wind and speed to all
3/7/2009 10:11:39 AMHoward Rowson

Please note this Heads Up is ONLY for SUNDAY!!

At the moment for me, the talk of being ok to sail on Monday is just "hear say and Rumour" with all due respect to those posting on the Iwindsurf forum. Until the Ok is given by the lake wardens / or those in authority, this Heads Up willl remain Sunday only.

"The Contractors wont mind us using the lake, so long as we stay off the north car park"  I doubt that has come from the contractors.

If however, "The lake wardens have spoken with the local council / Contractor" and access to use the lake from the southern end has been granted"  were to be posted then that would constitute an "ok to sail"

At this stage I'm not too worried about Monday, Sunday pm will deliver!!
3/7/2009 10:15:09 AMHoward Rowson

If any one is going down to WK today or in the area confirmation for Monday from the lake wardens would be welcome.
















3/7/2009 1:41:15 PMHoward Rowson

oops a few carriage returns slipped into the above post.

Ok mesoscale to 1800hrs tomorrow now released, and I have to say I'm not exactly jumping for joy at the lack of westerly on the charts for liverpool bay. WbS to WSW would be closer to the mark, and with the wind coming in partially overland, we may not realise the full 30kts+ out in the irish sea at West Kirby. So we could be faced with a tight and gusty session on starboard. With this in mind the GFS wind forecasts could be closer to the mark, Wind guru, XC, Windfinder etc.

If this was the forecast yesterday I doubt I would have called a USM. Still .... there's time for change.
3/7/2009 4:21:52 PMHoward Rowson

Ok MetO 12z chart update just out. Looks like the prevaiilng wind will be wsw/wbs tomorrow thanks to a frontal trough aligned n/s over Eire at lunch tomorrow, the westerly will kick in after this passes thru, which may be too late in the day. Sunday evening / night should be spot on for a westerly, running thru into Monday morning.

I'm awaiting official confimation for sailing Monday am. rather than relying on the hearsay and rumour thats. being banded around.
   
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